A Monte Carlo simulation of the work left: three-point duration uncertainty by WBS branch, activity code or single activity, plus discrete risk events from a register, before and after mitigation.
What it gives you
Probability of meeting a target date, P-dates for the finish and every remaining milestone.
Each risk's real cost to the finish, measured after float, and uncertainty-only, unmitigated and mitigated scenarios on common random numbers.
Criticality, sensitivity, SSI and a convergence check, so you know the answer is stable.
Checked against known answers
Without sampling, the model reproduces the programme's own finish exactly. Impacts are entered in working days and every gap is reported in working days on the project calendar, with calendar days alongside.
What you set up
- A default range for every remaining activity, overridden by rules. First match wins.
- Triangular or BetaPERT distributions.
- A register with probability, minimum, most likely and maximum impact, linked activities and optional post-mitigation values. CSV in and out.
Check your next update before anyone else does.
Fourteen days free. Export an XER from P6 and see what it says.